06, 1, 2009
I don’t generally short stocks but for the longest time I told anyone that would listen that the stocks that I would short, if I did do such a thing, would be the stocks of the satellite radio players. They reminded me of AOL early on. Data wants to be free and tiny walled gardens cannot compete with 6 billion authors. My overall thesis has proven correct but I was wrong on the how, almost. Turns out Apple’s iPhone probably did more to kill Sirius than the Internet. However if there was any doubt of the ultimate demise of satellite radio’s dumb, unprofitable business model, the nail in the coffin has arrived in the form of Slacker and Pandora portable radio. Pandora is available on the iPhone. Slacker is available on the Blackberry (giving non-descript middle managers across the globe new potential for self-perceived coolness). I just loaded Slacker onto my Blackberry, and now there is simply no reason to use Sirius. You can kiss the remaining $0.35 of share price goodby.
Now slacker portable is not the portable music Internet. It’s not the 10,000 college radio stations available online (I guess I’m still going to have to build that app). It’s also not the millions of playlists available on sites like lastfm.com. But it is a great portfolio of radio stations plus any station of your own that you want to create. It’ll probably also go a good way toward finally putting a bullet in FM radio (and therefore part of CBS) as soon as the average consumer figures out how to get their phone playing through their car stereo. iPhone is going a long way in paving the way here as well.
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09, 28, 2008
Part of me is jealous every time I see someone showing off their sleek Apple notebook or iPhone. They’re so sexy, svelt, and powerful. I’m like a kid who sees that bright red, yellow, and green box of candy. The mouth waters but the eating isn’t as fun as quenching the desire. Now I know Apple theologians will think me an uninformed heretical nut job. They are in love with their MacBooks and iPhones and I’m a just an envious nerd. On the surface they are right. But the 80% rational part of my brain doesn’t want an Apple for one overriding reason: it is a walled garden. The price for beauty, svelt, and power is confinement and I’m just not that psyched to get in, no matter how cool that piece of hardware might make me in the eyes of others.
Perfect example is Wired’s report on applications cast out of iPhonedom embracing Android. It is true Android is playing catch up/me too with iPhone. Apple has the market lead. Apple’s phone is cooler, thinner, sexier. On top of that it has a great application development environment open for anyone who wants to play. But it is also true that it is Apple’s sandbox, not the developers. Just like their hardware, unless your application fits with their world domination plan you’re not allowed in the sandbox. Take your toys and leave please. Now I know Google has its own world domination plan. Call me naive but world domination by Google versus world domination by Apple seems like democracy versus communism, respectively. Both want to rule the world. One just fits what I, the lowly developer, want from that world more than the other. 1984 anyone?
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